The Center for Social Data Analytics Speaker Series Presents: Yang Yang (Political Science)

Title: "Foreign Lobbying as an Electoral Strategy: Electoral Cycles and Major-Power Engagement"

Abstract: Major powers frequently influence elections abroad, yet existing research focuses primarily on the supply side of intervention. This paper shifts attention to the demand side by examining how weaker states seek foreign electoral support during electoral competition. I argue that foreign support-seeking follows electoral cycles: As elections approach, incumbents intensify efforts to secure foreign support that can strengthen their electoral prospects. More specifically, electoral cycles should be more pronounced in efforts to secure public-facing support than resource-based support. While both can be electorally valuable, public-facing support–such as high-level visits and political endorsements–can be delivered much more quickly than resource-based support–such as aid, trade, and investment, which typically requires prolonged bargaining and implementation. Using original data on foreign government lobbying in the United States from FARA disclosures, classified with large language models, I find that incumbents intensify their efforts to seek foreign electoral support as elections approach, and that this pattern is driven primarily by efforts to secure public-facing support from the United States rather than resource-based support. These findings recast foreign electoral intervention as a process actively solicited by incumbents facing electoral pressures, rather than one driven solely by major powers.

Bio: Yang Yang is a dual-title Ph.D. candidate in Political Science and Social Data Analytics at Penn State University. His research focuses on international security, foreign policy, signaling, and diplomacy. His work examines why political actors choose particular foreign policy actions, what those actions communicate, and how they are interpreted by domestic and international audiences, particularly in the contexts of diplomacy, coercion, and crisis bargaining. Methodologically, his research utilizes design-based causal inference, experimental methods, machine learning, natural language processing, geospatial data analysis, and qualitative case studies to study these questions. In parallel, he also pursues methodological research that develops and refines these tools for political science applications.